How would an ASF outbreak in Germany affect the EU pork market?

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If African swine fever (ASF) crosses the border from Poland to reach German wild boar, the German export market of approximately 500,000 tonnes of pork would be at risk.

EU prices could drop by 20-40%, although, according to a new AHDB report, the consequences of an outbreak for the EU market would not be as severe as it would have been 18 months ago, due to the ongoing demand for pork from China.

The ASF virus has been found in wild boar in western Poland just 12km from the German border, prompting renewed concerns about the impact on the EU pork sector if the virus found in Germany.

In a new report, AHDB points out that Germany is a large exporter of pork to non-EU destinations, many of which tend to completely ban pork from ASF-affected countries, even if the disease is just in wild boar.

With Germany exporting around 500,000 tonnes per year, this pork would probably need to stay within the EU instead, AHDB analyst Bethan Wilkins said.

If German pork can no longer be sent, as other exporters are now shipping so much out of the EU, supplies on the EU market could increase to levels similar to those seen in 2018. EU pork prices could therefore fall to 2018 levels, representing a 20-40% drop, although Germany will, of course, be more affected than nations maintaining access to China, with export prices still elevated, Ms Wilkins added.

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