China’s pig industry will rise like a phoenix

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China was hit hard by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks in 2018 and 2019. Most estimates indicate a pig industry size reduction of more than 50%. What does that mean for the years to come? China will come back for sure, but how quickly, and what will the impact be? Richard A. Brown, a director of Gira, explains.

‘Unexpected’, ‘unprecedented’ and ‘having severe consequences’. That is what characterises a ‘black swan event’, and it is the phrase Richard Brown likes to use to describe the occurrence of ASF in China and Asia. Brown is a director of Gira Consultancy and Research, based in the United Kingdom and France. As such, he has been focusing on the virus and its tragic effects on the short and longer term for China and the rest of the world.

Short and long term effects of ASF

Rare as black swans may be, one black swan event has just been overtaken by another one: Covid-19, which is likely to have severe consequences for the international pig market as well. In this article we will zoom in on the short and longer term effects of ASF. Over the last 12 months, Brown has repeatedly been asked to share his views on ASF at congresses and other events across the globe, one of which Pig Progress attended. Brown has an excellent overview of the meat and pork trade, to what type of disruptions the ASF deficit in Asia will lead and how the markets will bounce back in the medium and longer term.

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