The growth of global pig production is set to be slowed by a range of factors, including the resurgence of Africa swine fever (ASF) in Asia, higher feed costs and the impact of COVID-19 on demand, according to Rabobank.
Pig prices are sharply higher in most markets, as processors scramble to find adequate supplies, according the food and agriculture specialist bank.
In its latest quarterly pork update Rabobank analysts highlight how the combination of rising herd health challenges, rising costs, and demand uncertainty due to ongoing pandemic disruption have pressured margins, adding risk to global pork markets.
In China, herd losses due to new ASF outbreaks and health challenges are slowing the recovery.
While below earlier expectations, the sow herd is flat vs. 2020 and will expand through year-end as restocking efforts continue, Rabobank predicts.
Even with a projected production increase, China remains in a pork deficit and will continue to import large volumes of pork – pork imports were up 22% YOY in the first three months of this year at 1.43m tonnes. Demand is weak due to the pandemic and high relative pork prices at retail.
The Philippines has also suffered higher than expected herd losses due to ASF this year, while PRRS and PEDv are contributing to a supply shortfall in the US and Mexico, and the re-emergence of classical swine fever (CSF) in Japan and Brazil is also affecting production.
by Alistair Driver / Pig WorldRead full article Share on twitter