RaboBank: weak economic growth affecting global pork consumption
The latest Rabobank quarterly pork report raises concerns for the global pork industry. Despite indications that inflation is slowing, the impact is likely to be felt throughout the industry in 2023.
Pork demand is holding its position, as demand is less sensitive to economic changes than other markets. Christine McCracken, senior analyst – animal protein at Rabobank, said: “Nevertheless, we see persistently high retail prices limiting consumption of all proteins. Consumers continue to conserve capital by shifting everyday purchases to lower-value protein options, switching channels, and moving to smaller pack sizes.
“Slowing supply in Europe will help balance the industry, yet high costs of production and limited consumer support will require a more conservative approach to production to stabilise margins.”
An improvement in production costs in 2023 has been forecast, however this could vary and risk management will be vital. Global feed stocks are at historically low levels, and availability remains tight. A disappointing Argentine harvest will partially offset Brazil’s record 2023 soybean and safrinha corn crops, leaving the market to focus on import needs, Black Sea grain availability (the current trade extension will expire in the coming months), and the successful planting of a new crop in the Northern Hemisphere.
Ms McCracken said: “Rabobank expects the small global cushion in grain and oilseed stocks to drive additional feed cost volatility in 2023.”
Vicky Lewis | Pig World
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