UK Beef Market Outlook
UK Beef Market Outlook for 2025
Key Points
- Reduced Domestic Supply: UK beef production is forecast to fall by 5% year-on-year to 885,000 tonnes in 2025 due to a reduced domestic cattle supply.
- Consumption Trends: Domestic beef consumption is expected to grow marginally, driven by retail demand as foodservice remains stable. Everyday cuts like mince are anticipated to perform well as consumers remain price-conscious.
- Import and Export Dynamics: The UK’s requirement for imported beef is projected to increase by 12% in 2025 compared to 2024. Conversely, exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to supply constraints.
- Price Outlook: Domestic farmgate cattle prices are expected to be supported throughout 2025. However, consumer price sensitivity and the mix of cuts purchased will be crucial to overall carcase values.
Overview
2024 was a strong year for the beef market overall. The UK produced 934,000 tonnes of beef and veal, up nearly 4% from 2023. This increase, combined with a 5% uplift in beef imports, contributed to greater supply on the market. Despite this, GB finished cattle prices continued to set records in 2024. Consumer demand was robust, with slight growth in retail and stable volumes through foodservice. Exports also increased, supported by demand from the continent.
Analyst Insight
Hannah Clarke, Lead Analyst (Red Meat), highlights that the forecast supply and demand changes point to a supportive environment for domestic farmgate cattle prices in 2025. However, the price sensitivity of consumers and the mix of cuts purchased will play a crucial role in determining overall carcase values.
AHDB
