UK Beef Production to Decline by 5% in 2025 Amid Rising Domestic Consumption

UK Beef Production to Decline by 5% in 2025 Amid Rising Domestic Consumption

Key Insights

• Production Decline: UK beef production will decrease by 5% in 2025, dropping to 885,000 tonnes.
• Consumption Growth: Domestic beef consumption will grow by 1%.
• Supply Dynamics: Prime cattle availability will decline, with a 6% drop in slaughter to 1.99 million head.
• Consumer Trends: Demand for everyday beef cuts like mince and fresh, primary cuts over processed foods will increase.
• Trade Impact: UK beef imports will rise by 12%, while exports will fall by 7%.

Detailed Analysis

Production and Supply Dynamics

In 2025, UK beef production will decrease by 5%, reaching 885,000 tonnes. This decline follows sustained reductions in cattle numbers due to factors such as underlying business profitability, declining direct payments, and strong beef prices.

Despite a strong year in 2024, with a 4% increase in production to 934,000 tonnes, 2025 will see a shift in supply dynamics. Prime cattle availability will decline, with a 6% drop in slaughter to 1.99 million head. This trend will continue into 2026, influenced by previous years’ calf registrations.

Market and Consumer Trends

Hannah Clarke, AHDB Lead Analyst (Red Meat), stated, “The beef sector is entering 2025 in a period of significant supply constraint, which will support cattle prices throughout the year. However, consumer sensitivity to prices and the cuts they choose will play a pivotal role in determining overall carcase values.”

Consumer demand, although influenced by economic uncertainty, will grow by 1% year-on-year. Everyday beef cuts like mince, catering to busy families and price-sensitive consumers, will perform strongly in the retail sector. Additionally, concerns about ultra-processed foods will drive demand for fresh, primary beef cuts, with 90% of consumers emphasizing the importance of diet for overall health.

Trade and Pricing

On the trade front, UK beef imports will rise by 12% to compensate for reduced domestic production, with significant increases from Ireland, the UK’s largest supplier. Conversely, exports, which saw strong growth in 2024, will fall by 7% in 2025 due to supply constraints.

Farmgate cattle prices will be supported by reduced supply both domestically and globally, driving competition for beef cattle. However, the price sensitivity of UK consumers and the mix of cuts purchased will be crucial in determining overall carcase values. Retailers should highlight beef’s value proposition, focusing on health benefits, versatility, and convenience to drive demand.