Meat & Livestock Australia Projects Herd Reductions Amid Strong Global Demand
Australia’s cattle and sheep herds are forecast to decline slightly in 2025, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections. Despite the reduction, the country is achieving record red meat production, driven by high slaughter volumes and robust export demand.
Cattle Sector: Efficiency Drives Record Beef Output
The national cattle herd is expected to fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head, influenced by:
- Increased turn-off of older breeding cows
- Dry conditions in Southern Australia
In 2024, Australia produced more beef than ever, even though slaughter volumes were 7% below the previous record set in 2014. This was made possible by:
- Higher carcase weights
- Growth in grainfed cattle production
MLA Managing Director Michael Crowley highlighted that producers are raising more efficient and productive cattle, which is essential as global beef supply tightens due to:
- The US herd rebuild
- Easing drought conditions in Brazil
Crowley emphasized the importance of efficient logistics and supply chain management to maintain processing flow and avoid bottlenecks.
Sheep Sector: Ewe Turn-Off and Seasonal Challenges
The national sheep flock is projected to decline by 7.4% to 73.2 million head in 2025, driven by:
- Turn-off of older breeding ewes from the 2020–2022 rebuild
- Challenging seasonal conditions
Key forecasts include:
- Sheep slaughter to drop by 17% to 9.8 million head
- Lamb slaughter to ease slightly to 26.2 million head, down 0.5% from 2024
Despite the flock reduction, lamb production is expected to reach 628,648 tonnes, supported by genetic improvements in weight gain and yield.
Crowley noted that elevated slaughter levels at the end of 2024 mean many lambs will be processed in early 2025.
Global Export Leadership
Australia and New Zealand account for over 80% of global sheepmeat exports. With New Zealand’s flock also declining, Australian exporters are well-positioned to maintain global dominance in 2025.
Conclusion
Australia’s red meat industry is demonstrating resilience and adaptability, achieving record production despite herd and flock reductions. With strong global demand and strategic supply chain management, the country is set to remain a leading exporter of beef and lamb in 2025.