Record Production Amid Declining Australian Cattle and Sheep Herds – MLA
Australia’s Cattle and Sheep Herds Expected to Decline in 2025
Australia’s national cattle herd and sheep flock are projected to decline slightly in 2025 due to record production, slaughter, and exports meeting demand, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2025 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections.
The cattle herd is expected to fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head, driven by increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in Southern Australia. The sheep flock is projected to decrease by 7.4% to 73.2 million head due to the turn-off of older breeding ewes and challenging seasonal conditions.
MLA Managing Director Michael Crowley stated that the red meat industry is prepared to meet global demand in 2025, with record production and elevated slaughter rates supported by strong demand from established global supply chain relationships.
Cattle
Australia produced more beef than ever in 2024, despite slaughter volumes being 7% below the previous record in 2014, thanks to higher carcase weights from increased grainfed production. Crowley noted that producers are growing more efficient and productive cattle, which is crucial given the significant global demand for beef.
As the US begins its herd rebuild and drought conditions in Brazil ease, global beef supply is expected to tighten. Efficient logistics and supply chain management will be essential to maintaining processing flow and preventing bottlenecks.
Sheep
Older breeding ewes retained from the 2020–22 rebuild will exit the system in 2025, contributing to the decline in the national flock. Sheep slaughter is forecast to decline by 17% to 9.8 million head, while lamb slaughter is expected to reach 26.2 million head, a slight 0.5% decline from 2024.
Despite the decline in the national sheep flock, lamb production is projected to reach 628,648 tonnes in 2025, driven by genetic improvements in weight gain and yield. Crowley highlighted that elevated sheep slaughter levels at the end of 2024 mean lambs not processed last year will be processed in early 2025.
Australia and New Zealand account for over 80% of global sheepmeat exports. The decline in New Zealand’s sheep flock provides an opportunity for Australian exporters to maintain their global dominance in 2025.
