Growing Volatility in the Australian Cow Market

Australian Cow Market Sees High Volatility Amid Record Prices and Shifting Fundamentals

The Australian cow market is currently experiencing heightened volatility, driven by a combination of record prices, shifting supply and demand fundamentals, and external pressures such as adverse weather and evolving geopolitical developments.

According to Emily Tan, Market Information Analyst at Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), producers are actively capitalising on historically high prices, although recent fluctuations reflect the delicate balance of market forces.

Market Fundamentals and Supply Trends

The recent volatility is closely tied to market fundamentals—particularly supply and demand dynamics. As supply increases, particularly of leaner cows, prices have begun to ease. However, many producers are still entering the market to take advantage of cow prices at their highest in over three years.

Cow Price Trends – March to April

• Processor Cow Indicator:

  • Final week of March: 304¢/kg liveweight (lwt)

  • Last week: Rose by 33¢ to 319¢/kg lwt

  • Current price: 10% above the previous week, and 28% above the 10-year average

• Wagga Saleyards:

  • 7 April: 2,150 cows yarded

  • 14 April: 1,995 cows

  • Heavy cow prices: 322–360¢/kg lwt

• Dalby Saleyards (9 April):

  • 991 cows yarded

  • Prices eased by 27¢ to 285¢/kg lwt

  • Previous week: 513 cows yarded, prices lifted by 31¢ to 312¢/kg lwt

Increased yardings—particularly of leaner cows—have driven price softening, while heavy cows continue to attract premiums.

Regional Price Variations

The regional cow market continues to reflect varied conditions:

• Wagga: Heavy cows achieving up to 360¢/kg lwt

• Dalby: Prices dipping to 285¢/kg lwt amid increased supply and easing quality

These regional differences underscore the impact of localised supply conditions, buyer demand, and market readiness.

External Influences: Weather & Geopolitics

External events are compounding market uncertainty:

• US tariff policies are shifting global meat trade dynamics

• Flooding in Western Queensland has disrupted supply chains and impacted livestock conditions

These factors are prompting greater caution among producers as they attempt to navigate an unpredictable marketplace.

Outlook: Uncertainty Amid Strong Demand

The Australian cow market remains robust but volatile, with producers attempting to seize favourable pricing despite uncertainty. Ongoing shifts in weather, global trade policy, and supply quality are likely to continue driving market fluctuations in the months ahead.

Key Takeaways:

• Cow prices are at a three-year high, but market volatility is increasing.

• Leaner cow supply is softening prices, while heavy cows remain in demand.

• Regional markets show significant pricing variations.

• External factors like weather and trade policy are influencing market behaviour.

Source: Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst