Global Beef Market Faces Supply Squeeze and Trade Volatility, Warns Rabobank
Global Beef Market Faces Uncertainty Amid Production Declines and Trade Disruptions
The global beef industry is navigating a period of significant uncertainty, with Rabobank forecasting a 2% contraction in global beef production for the remainder of 2025. This downturn is attributed to herd reductions in major producing countries, marking the first global supply decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the first half of 2025, cattle markets have experienced upward trends, particularly in Europe, where prices have surged due to tightening supplies. However, the market faces additional challenges from geopolitical factors, including the reintroduction of tariffs and trade policy shifts under the current U.S. administration, leading to increased volatility in global beef trade.
Amid these challenges, Australia stands out as a positive exception. Favourable seasonal conditions have bolstered cattle numbers, resulting in near-record beef production. This positions Australia advantageously in export markets, especially as other major producers experience declines. Rabobank anticipates that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively stable throughout 2025, supported by strong global demand.
Conversely, South American producers are increasingly focusing on exports to meet rising global demand, potentially at the expense of their domestic markets. In the United States, the beef industry is entering a rebuilding phase, with expectations of higher prices across all cattle and beef markets. This necessitates strategic adjustments by producers and processors to manage elevated costs and limited availability.
Overall, the global beef market is contending with a complex array of factors, including supply constraints, trade disruptions, and shifting production dynamics. Stakeholders across the industry will need to adapt to these evolving conditions to maintain stability and meet global demand.
Information sourced and adapted from Rabobank and Agriland.ie.
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