Analysis: Why UK Meat Prices Rose 15.91% in 2025
Analysis of the 15.91% UK Meat Price Rise in 2025
UK meat and poultry prices rose by an average 15.91% during 2025, marking one of the sharpest annual increases seen in recent years. While inflationary pressure was felt across most protein categories, a closer examination of market data shows the headline figure was driven overwhelmingly by beef, where a severe domestic supply squeeze collided with resilient consumer demand.
Industry sources agree the increase was not evenly spread across the meat sector. Instead, beef prices surged to record levels, pulling up the overall average, while pork prices remained broadly stable and poultry saw more moderate inflation linked to disease disruption.
Price Increases by Meat Type
Data compiled from trade sources including the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) highlights the scale of divergence between protein categories.
| Meat Type | Average Price Increase (2025) | Approx. Increase per kg | Key Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beef | +32.26% | +£4.89/kg | Primary driver of overall meat inflation |
| Lamb | +8.94% | – | Moderate increase, broadly inflationary |
| Chicken | +7.64% | – | Impacted by avian influenza disruption |
| Pork | ~0% | +£0.16/kg | Largely stable supply and demand |
Beef’s outsized increase explains why overall meat inflation remained elevated despite relatively subdued movement in pork and poultry prices.
Primary Driver: Beef Supply and Demand Imbalance
The core cause of beef price inflation in 2025 was a structural supply shortfall, confirmed by multiple industry bodies including AHDB and the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA).
Supply-side pressure
UK beef production contracted sharply during 2025. AHDB forecast a 5% fall in beef output, reflecting a sustained reduction in the national cattle herd. This was reinforced by a 6% decline in prime cattle slaughter, tightening availability further.
A Devon beef producer summarised the situation succinctly in reporting by the BBC News:
“It is entirely the maths – it’s about supply and demand. There’s a 5% shortfall in cattle on the land.”
Several structural factors underpin the supply decline:
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Lower livestock numbers: Years of squeezed farm profitability and the tapering of direct payments have reduced breeding herds.
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Policy direction: BMPA chief executive Nick Allen has argued that recent government schemes have prioritised environmental outcomes over production volume.
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Rising imports: Beef imports were expected to rise by around 12% in 2025 to offset domestic shortages.
Demand remains resilient
Despite higher prices, consumer demand for beef held firm. AHDB projected a 1% increase in domestic beef consumption during 2025, partly driven by a shift away from ultra-processed foods towards fresh meat and primary cuts.
This combination of fewer cattle and steady demand created intense competition for available supply, pushing prices sharply higher.
As AHDB lead analyst Hannah Clarke noted:
“The beef sector is entering 2025 in a period of significant supply constraint, which is expected to support cattle prices throughout the year. Consumer sensitivity to price and cut choice will determine overall carcase values.”
Secondary Inflationary Pressures
While beef supply was the dominant factor, other forces contributed to broader meat price inflation.
Labour and processing costs
Although some farm inputs such as feed and energy eased in late 2024, labour costs continued to rise. AHDB’s Agricultural Price Index showed labour costs up four index points year-on-year, with further pressure expected in 2025 due to increases in the National Living Wage. These costs filter through farms, abattoirs and processing plants, adding to shelf prices.
Avian influenza disruption
The poultry sector faced avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks across the UK and EU. AIMS said these events caused “notable supply-side disruption”, contributing directly to the 7.64% rise in chicken prices. While less dramatic than beef inflation, the impact underlined how disease shocks can quickly influence protein markets.
A Beef-Led Inflation Story
The 15.91% rise in UK meat prices during 2025 was not a uniform inflationary event. It was primarily a beef story, driven by a severe domestic supply contraction that was not matched by a fall in consumer demand. Beef prices surged by more than 32%, lifting the entire meat price index.
Other pressures, including rising labour costs and avian influenza disruption in poultry, added to the inflationary environment. In contrast, pork prices remained largely stable, demonstrating that price pressure was sector-specific rather than systemic.
Looking ahead, the data suggests that unless cattle numbers recover meaningfully, beef will remain the key inflation risk within the UK meat basket.