UK Meat Prices Dip in February, But AIMS Warns of Middle East Ripple Effects
Middle East instability could shift UK meat prices as AIMS tracker turns negative
UK meat and poultry prices slipped slightly in February, with the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) reporting the first negative month on month movement since it launched its inflation tracker.
AIMS said the overall month on month inflation figure moved to -0.16% (down £0.02 per kg), with beef (-0.45%), pork (-0.56%) and chicken (-0.43%) all showing falls. Lamb was the only category to rise, up +0.58%.
Tony Goodger, Head of Communications at AIMS, said February pricing was “by and large” flat, but pointed to continued upward pressure on an annual basis. Comparing February 2025 with February 2026, AIMS reported prices up 11.99% (around £1.32 per kg), driven mainly by beef. In the tracker, lean minced beef rose £2.55 per kg (+31.91%) year on year, while beef roasting joints increased £3.95 per kg (+30.48%).
Goodger added that pork (+1.84%) and chicken (+0.43%) remain the more affordable switch for consumers seeking to stretch weekly food budgets.
Looking ahead, AIMS warned that developments in the Middle East could influence meat and poultry pricing through both trade flows and logistics.
One scenario outlined by AIMS is that Brazil, a major poultry supplier to the Middle East and one of the world’s largest beef exporters, could look to redirect volumes into markets such as the EU. AIMS said that could potentially pressure European pricing and, in turn, encourage additional EU exports, including Irish beef, into the UK market.
AIMS also highlighted shipping risk. It said disruption in the Red Sea and particularly the Strait of Hormuz can push southern hemisphere routes around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to transit times. AIMS said longer routes increase fuel use by up to 40% and raise freight and insurance costs, which can ultimately be passed through the supply chain.
Longer term, AIMS noted that input costs such as fertiliser, animal feed and oil could add inflationary pressure for producers, including in the UK. However, it also suggested that if Middle East tourism and demand were heavily impacted, import volumes could decline, potentially leaving more UK production in the domestic market.
“As ever, with economic thinking, there is rarely a simple answer,” Goodger said, adding that the next few months would be closely watched in the tracker.
Source: Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) | 2 March 2026
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