Record High US Beef Prices on Historic Herd Shortage
US Cattle Inventories Hit 70-Year Low, Driving Record High Prices
US cattle inventories have fallen to their lowest level in more than 70 years, underpinning record-high cattle and beef prices across the American market. Official estimates put the national herd at 86.7 million head as of 1 January 2025, the smallest since the early 1950s, according to analysis referenced by Ohio State University.
The sharp contraction in supply is feeding directly into prices. Fed cattle are averaging around $224 per cwt, up 20% year on year, while the Choice boxed beef cut-out has averaged $359 per cwt, representing a 17% increase on 2024. Tight availability has also prompted forecasts of a 4.1% decline in US beef production for 2025.
Analysts say the current cycle differs from previous downturns. While the last major herd rebuild began in 2014, the recovery this time is expected to be slower and more cautious, reflecting higher input costs, land constraints and lingering weather impacts. As a result, supply is likely to remain constrained even as demand stays firm.
Source article: Ohio State University | 18 December 2025
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