Quotes

Base quotes for lambs from the major processors have improved slightly this week with €7.00-7.05/kg (+QA bonus) on offer. Relatively tight lamb supplies combined with some stability in demand from the domestic and export markets have contributed to this firming of the trade.

The latest sheep population statistics point towards a decline in sheepmeat availability in key sheep producing regions of the EU in the final quarter of 2024. Contractions in breeding ewe numbers combined with some disease issues, particularly the spread of blue tongue, have further depleted supplies for processing across the continent and created firm demand for those available.

Prices

Last weeks reported deadweight price firmed to €7.19/kg, back 21c/kg from the week previous and reflective of some increase in the supply of lambs coming forward for processing. In the corresponding week in 2023 the reported deadweight price was €6.17/kg.

The deadweight trade has shown mixed fortunes across the UK regions. Reported lamb prices in mainland GB were the equivalent of €7.46/kg  last week (-21c/kg) with some improvement in lamb supplies for processing contributing to this decline.

Meanwhile in Northern Ireland the trade has held steady with a reported price unchanged at 700c/kg. Relatively tight supplies of lamb for slaughter in Northern Ireland combined with competition from the live export trade to both mainland GB and ROI have contributed to this stability in the trade.

Southern Hemisphere prices remain well below European prices however they have improved significantly over the last few weeks, narrowing the price differential with the EU. With a lead time on product shipments this recent improvement in deadweight prices should impact their competitiveness on EU markets in the medium to  longer term.

Demand for Southern Hemisphere lamb in China has remained somewhat subdued in recent months however reports of stable demand in the Middle East and the US has helped redivert product away from key European markets.

Throughput

Total sheep throughput has held relatively consistent over the last four weeks, running just below the 60K mark. This is consistently below the throughput in the corresponding weeks last year and is reflective of the ongoing tighter supply situation. With relatively good demand from customers in key markets it has created firm demand for suitable lambs.

Bord Bia

Throughput

There were 40.956 cattle processed in DAFM approved plants last week, an uplift of just over 1,000 head from the previous week. This uplift is primarily due to an increase in the heifer kill of almost 800 head when compared to the previous week.

Prime cattle throughput YTD is currently on par with the same period last year at 990,000 head although a notable tightening in prime cattle availability is expected as we move into the final quarter of the year. A contraction in cattle numbers on the ground and a lively export trade have contributed to this outlook with numbers expected to remain tight for much of 2025.

Average carcase weights also continue to trend below previous years with the combination of a challenging grass growing season and a growing dairy influence on the prime cattle kill playing a role in the decline. The downward trend in average carcase weights is expected to continue in the short to medium term with calf registrations to suckler cows continuing to decline, while the number of beef sired calves produced from the dairy herd continues to increase.

Prices

There was a steadying in the base quotes at Irish meat plants this week in response to tighter supplies of suitable cattle. In general, producers were offered a base price of €5.00/kg for steers with reports of up to €5.15/kg available.

Starting quotes for heifers are in the region of €5.05/kg this week with similar room for negotiation being reported. The trade for young bulls was also described as steady, with prices of between €5.10/kg and €5.15/kg on-offer for R grading animals under 24 months of age.

 

The cow trade remains relatively steady, with well-fleshed O+ grading suckler cows being offered prices of €4.50-4.65/kg, while prices for O grading dairy cows generally range from €4.30-4.40/kg. A significant proportion of the cow kill have achieved a conformation score of P in recent months and the prices available for these animals vary significantly based on grade, weight and quality.

For the week ending 06 October 2024, the average price paid by Irish beef processors for R3 remained steady at €5.04/kg. This remained 39c/kg ahead the corresponding week in 2023 when the R3 steer price was €4.65/kg.

Note that reported prices exclude VAT but include all bonus payments such as in-spec bonus, breed-based producer groups etc.

EU and UK prices

Across the EU, the average reported price for R3 grading young bulls was €5.28/kg (excluding VAT) for the week ending 06 October, 2024. This is 41c higher than week 32 of last year when prices averaged €4.87/kg for this category.

In the UK, tighter cattle supplies and firm demand have meant deadweight beef prices have continued to firm. This week the average UK R3 steer price increased by 4c/kg to €6.08/kg.

Bord Bia

COPENHAGEN, 11 October (Reuters) – Danish Crown, a major meat producer and exporter, announced on Friday plans to cut around 500 white-collar jobs as part of a significant reorganisation aimed at saving approximately 500 million crowns (£59 million) in annual costs.

“Danish Crown is in the midst of a crisis, and we are facing radical changes. Our costs are simply too high compared to our earnings,” said CEO Niels Duedahl, who assumed his role on 1 September, in a statement. “We are now restructuring the organisation and focusing entirely on our core business to ensure better payments for the farmers who own Danish Crown,” he added.

In April, the company revealed plans to close one of its major slaughterhouses in Denmark and lay off nearly 1,200 employees by mid-September, expecting to save around 250 million crowns over the next three years.

At that time, Danish Crown stated that the number of pigs sent for slaughter in Denmark had significantly declined since 2021, making it necessary to streamline production to offer Danish farmers a competitive price for their livestock.

Reuters

 

The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has hit back at recent claims by Food Standards Agency (FSA) Chair, Susan Jebb, regarding the necessity of constant veterinary oversight in meat establishments.

AIMS contends that the FSA’s stance undermines the legal responsibilities of food business operators (FBOs) and fails to acknowledge the effectiveness of modern food safety technologies.

Dr Jason Aldiss, Head of External Affairs at AIMS, criticised the FSA’s approach, stating, “The suggestion that standards would fall without full-time vets onsite is misleading and disregards the legal responsibility FBOs have for food safety.” He added that the FSA’s current stance represents a shift away from its original risk-based approach and towards a risk-averse model that unnecessarily prioritises veterinary presence.

“The law is clear: FBOs are responsible for food safety, while veterinarians are there to verify compliance, not to manage daily operations,” said Dr Aldiss.

The UK’s meat industry is globally recognised for its high standards, largely driven by the businesses themselves. AIMS argues that technology, such as blockchain and artificial intelligence, offers more effective and efficient oversight than traditional veterinary presence, which adds significant costs without improving safety outcomes.

AIMS is now calling for the FSA to embrace more modern, technology-led solutions to maintain the UK’s world-leading food safety standards, rather than relying on outdated veterinary controls.

The latest market update from the AHDB has revealed that cattle and sheep prices are holding steady as strong demand continues to support the market.

In its report for the week ending 10 October 2024, AHDB highlighted key trends in the livestock sector, with both cattle and sheep prices seeing minimal fluctuations.

Cattle Market Update

Deadweight cattle prices showed slight declines, with the overall average steer price down by 1.2p, now standing at 456.6p per kg. Despite this minor dip, cattle prices remain relatively strong due to solid demand from domestic processors. The report noted that tight cattle supply has kept the market firm, preventing any significant price drops.

Heifer prices remained stable, with the average deadweight price reaching 453.7p per kg, showing resilience in the market. Cull cow prices have also been holding steady, supported by ongoing demand for manufacturing beef.

Sheep Market Performance

Sheep prices have also remained firm, with the GB deadweight old season lamb (OSL) SQQ (standard quality quotation) recording a marginal rise of 0.1p per kg to reach 573.6p per kg. The liveweight OSL price saw a slight increase to 264.7p per kg, up by 1.7p. These price movements reflect the continuing demand for lamb, driven by steady domestic consumption and robust export demand.

AHDB analysts pointed out that lamb prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks, with supply conditions remaining tight due to seasonal factors. However, the outlook for the market could shift as the Christmas period approaches, when demand traditionally rises.

Looking Ahead

The AHDB report highlighted that while prices have remained stable, both cattle and sheep markets are subject to pressures from wider economic conditions, including rising input costs and fluctuating consumer demand. Nevertheless, strong domestic and export demand is expected to keep prices firm in the near term.

As the market moves towards the festive season, demand for lamb is likely to increase, potentially supporting further price rises. However, the cattle market will remain sensitive to shifts in supply and demand dynamics as the year progresses.

AHDB

Scotland’s Red Meat and Offal Exports Surge to £137m, QMS Survey Reveals

The UK Government has revealed two more delays in its post-Brexit border control plans, further extending the timeline for the full introduction of checks on goods arriving from the European Union. This marks the latest in a series of postponements since the UK’s departure from the EU in 2020, sparking concerns over continued uncertainty for businesses.

The first delay affects the implementation of full sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks on food and agricultural products, which were due to be introduced at the beginning of 2024. The government now plans to phase in these checks later in the year, citing the need for businesses to have more time to adapt to new processes and certification requirements.

The second delay involves customs declarations and safety/security checks on goods arriving from the EU, originally scheduled for mid-2024. These will now be rolled out incrementally, with no firm end date provided by officials. The government has explained that this phased approach is designed to minimise disruptions, particularly during a period of economic volatility and ahead of the crucial Christmas trading season.

Trade bodies have expressed frustration at the ongoing uncertainty, highlighting the potential strain on supply chains and increased costs for businesses. “These continued delays are creating confusion for companies, especially small businesses, which are struggling to plan effectively for the future,” said a spokesperson for the British Chambers of Commerce.

Meanwhile, the food industry has voiced concern over how the further delays to SPS checks could impact UK producers. “The imbalance created by the EU already implementing full border controls while the UK continues to postpone its checks is putting British food producers at a disadvantage,” said an industry expert.

Despite the criticism, the government insists that its priority is to ensure that systems are fully functional before the new measures are introduced. A government spokesperson said: “We remain committed to delivering a strong, effective border regime that works for businesses and consumers alike. However, it is essential that we get this right, and that means taking the necessary time to ensure all parties are prepared.”

As the UK navigates its post-Brexit trade arrangements, the repeated delays to border checks have added another layer of complexity for businesses already facing challenges from inflation, rising costs, and global supply chain pressures.

The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has welcomed the recent reopening of the export market for poultry to South Korea, following the UK’s earlier success in securing poultry export access to South Africa for the first time in eight years.

Tony Goodger, spokesperson for AIMS, commented, “The export market to South Korea for poultry and poultry meat products was suspended in November 2020 due to concerns over Avian Influenza. It’s fantastic news that, after the UK was declared free from Avian Influenza earlier this year, trade negotiators have successfully reopened this valuable market.”

In addition to South Korea and South Africa, the export market to Antigua has also reopened. The Export Health Certificate (EHC) 1805 for fresh poultry meat was restored to active status, following a Caribbean ban imposed in March 2021.

Goodger highlighted AIMS’ ongoing collaboration with the Animal and Plant Health Authority (APHA), noting, “We have been working closely with APHA to understand what needs to be done to lift trade barriers and restore access for our members to key export markets.”

Looking ahead, AIMS is keen to see the reopening of EHC 7570, which would allow the export of poultry meat and products to Saudi Arabia. This market has been on hold since October 2020. However, Tony Goodger acknowledged that reopening access to Saudi Arabia might face delays, given recent developments, including Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) acquiring stakes in major poultry producers.

Despite this, AIMS remains optimistic about future opportunities for UK poultry exporters in global markets.

Throughput

There were 39,854 cattle processed in DAFM approved plants during the w/e 28th September 2024, taking throughput for the year to date to 1,302,187 head. This is a <1% decrease on the corresponding period in 2023 when a total of 1,304,095 cattle were processed.

There have been 957,868 prime cattle processed in the 39 weeks of 2024 so far, a 1% decrease from the same period last year (-3,251 head). Cow throughput has remained strong with 273,476 cows processed so far this year, a notable increase of 321,403 head (+9%).

 Quotes

Factory quotes remain stable being similar to what was quoted last week. In general, producers were offered a base price of €5.00/kg to €5.05/kg for steers. Starting quotes for heifers are in the region of €5.10/kg to €5.15/kg this week similar to last week.

The trade for young bulls was also described as steady, still working off a base of €5.35/kg- €5.40 and €5.20/kg on-offer for R grading animals under 24 months of age. The cow trade remains relatively steady, with well-fleshed O grading cows being offered prices of €4.50-4.65/kg, with a range of €4.70-4.80c/kg available for good quality R grading cows.

Prices

For the week ending 28th September 2024, the average price paid by Irish beef processors for R3 increased marginally by 1c/kg to €5.05/kg. This remained 39c/kg ahead the corresponding week in 2023 when the R3 steer price was €4.66/kg. Note that reported prices exclude VAT but include all bonus payments such as in-spec bonus, breed-based producer groups etc. 

Across the EU, the average reported price for R3 grading young bulls was €5.23/kg (excluding VAT) for the week ending 28th September, 2024. This is 38c higher than week 39 of last year when prices averaged €4.85/kg for this R3 young bulls.

In Britain, tighter cattle supplies and firm demand have meant deadweight beef prices have remained firm again. This week the average UK R3 steer price remained at €6.05/kg (equivalent to £5.06/kg)

Bord Bia

A total of four new Argentine meat plants were allowed by China to send beef shipments to the Asian country, it was announced this week by Buenos Aires’ Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Secretariat.

According to Argentina’s National Agri-Food Health and Quality Service (Senasa), so far this year 426,898 tons of bovine meat products, both bone-in and boneless, have been exported to China, a market representing nearly 80% of the country’s beef exports.

“These authorizations are the result of the efforts made by our portfolio together with Senasa and represent a step forward in the expansion of our exports to international markets,” a statement from the Agriculture Secretariat read.

The new plants accessing the Chinese market is a crucial boost for the meat processing industry, it was also explained. The new authorisations will be valid from Sept. 2024 to Sept. 2028.

The GACC published on its web page an update of the list of foreign producers and processors of Argentine land animal protein and fat for animal consumption, with the incorporation of the meat packing plants Quickfood SA, Mapar SA, Refineria del Centro SA, and SA Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia.

MercoPress

Cattle

The average GB deadweight prime cattle price once again saw another jump for the week ending 21 September of just over 2p/kg to sit at 504.1p/kg. This now sits 27p higher than the same week in 2023, and over £1 higher than the five-year average.

Breaking this down into categories, the overall steer price saw growth of 2.4p from the previous week to continue its ascent up to 506.4p/kg. The overall heifer price saw a similar change of +2.1p/kg to 503p, as the overall young bull price marked a 0.6p dip to 493.5p/kg. The overall cow price dropped by 1.7p/kg from the previous week to 358.9p/kg, continuing the period of relative stability since the end of August.

AHDB estimated prime kill was 1,900 head higher compared to the week prior, sitting at 32,700 head. This was 200 head lower than volumes for the same week in 2023. Steer and heifer kill recorded growth of 1,500 and 1,200 head from the previous week, suggesting that the uplift in price was demand driven. Market reports suggest that demand in both wholesale and retail markets is growing in the run up to Christmas. Equally, data suggests that cattle supply will tighten into Q4 and into 2025.

Looking into retail volumes of beef sold, this increased by 1.6% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to 1 September. This was primarily driven by an 8% uplift in burger and grill sales, compared to primary volumes which were stable, spurred on by better weather during this period.

Sheep

Meanwhile, the GB deadweight lamb SQQ dipped slightly to 641.1p/kg for the week ending 21 September. This marked a 1.8p drop from the previous week, a shallower decline than the previous two weeks. The price sat 88p higher than the same week in 2023.

Looking into numbers forward, AHDB estimated GB kill sat just over 2,000 head higher than in the previous week. This brought throughputs up to an estimated 206,500 head for the week ending 21 September. This week continues the seasonal trend of higher kill since late July, but remained 16,800 head back from the same week last year.

More generally, the store and breeding markets are reportedly at strong levels, with higher prices per head compared to last year for some breeding stock.

Consumer demand for lamb remains strong despite a near 6% increase in the average price paid for lamb in retail (in the 12 weeks to 1 September). Volumes during the same period grew by just over 4% year-on-year, likely as better weather drove higher frequency of shops for burgers and grills.

Izzy Shohet | AHDB