Hogget Prices Hold Steady Amid Tight Supply and Rising Export Demand

The Irish sheep market remains firm in early March 2025, with hogget prices stabilizing due to tight supply conditions and increased demand ahead of Ramadan. According to industry reports, base quotes from major processors are around €8.80/kg, including Quality Assurance (QA) bonuses, with some deals reaching €9.00/kg for hoggets meeting premium specifications.

Market Drivers: Ramadan Demand and Supply Constraints

The recovery in base quotes coincides with the seasonal surge in demand for sheepmeat in key export markets during Ramadan. This has led to:

• Stronger liveweight trade across marts
• Firm competition for suitable lots
• Reduced carcass weight limits by some processors (down 1kg to 23kg)

Supply Situation: National and EU Trends

The current market strength is underpinned by very tight sheep supplies, a trend mirrored across the UK and EU. Contributing factors include:

• Contraction in breeding flocks
• Adverse weather conditions in spring 2024
• Disease outbreaks affecting flock health

The total sheep kill in DAFM-approved plants reached 44,091 head last week, slightly up from the previous week. However, the year-to-date total of 302,541 head is 23% lower than the same period in 2024.

Price Trends: Domestic and International Comparisons

• Deadweight price (week ending Feb 23): Rose to €8.87/kg, continuing a three-week upward trend after early-year declines.
• Mainland GB lamb prices: Equivalent to €8.78/kg, up 1c/kg.
• Northern Ireland: Increased to €8.40/kg, up 12c/kg.

Southern Hemisphere prices remain below EU levels but are showing modest gains:

• Australia: €4.72/kg
• New Zealand: €4.46/kg

Conclusion

The Irish sheep trade is showing resilience in March 2025, with hogget prices stabilizing amid tight supply and seasonal export demand. As Ramadan approaches and global supply remains constrained, Irish producers are well-positioned to benefit from firm market conditions.

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Irish Cattle Trade Prices Update – Early March 2025

Market Overview

Price Movements

• Steers and Heifers: Base quotes for steers range from €4.80 to €4.90/kg, while heifers are quoted slightly higher in some regions.
• Cull Cows: Prices remain firm, with quotes between €3.80 and €4.10/kg depending on grade and location.
• Young Bulls: Demand is steady, especially for U and R grades, with prices averaging €4.70/kg.

Regional Trends

Outlook

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Australian Livestock Market Update: Prices and Throughput

Key Points

• Cattle Quality: The quality of cattle, especially across eastern states, has been impacted by hot and dry weather.
• Lamb Quality: Strong quality across heavy and extra heavy lambs has continued.
• Slaughter Rates: Slaughter for both cattle and sheep eased over the week.

Cattle Market

Cattle prices were unable to maintain last week’s levels, resulting in a mixed market. Yardings eased by 1,705 to 51,439 head as the quality of stock declined due to hot and dry conditions.

With fewer heavy cattle coming to market, the Heavy Steer Indicator lifted by 3¢ to 337¢/kg liveweight (lwt). Prices increased in most states, with Queensland seeing an impressive lift of 26¢. However, processor demand for heavyweight-grown cattle was weaker, with both well-finished steers and heifers selling cheaper.

The Dairy Cow Indicator eased by 19¢ to 217¢/kg lwt, with yardings doubling over the past week to 811 head. A substantial number of cows are being offloaded, putting downward pressure on the market. Cows are now being sold 10¢ cheaper, driven by limited processor competition.

Sheep Market

Sheep prices took a downturn this week, except for the Mutton Indicator. Yardings increased by 68,948 to 317,502 head for combined lamb and sheep.

Strong quality across heavy and extra heavy lambs has continued, with the Heavy Lamb Indicator easing 7¢ to 792¢/kg carcase weight (cwt). Meanwhile, the Light Lamb Indicator eased by 45¢ to 671¢/kg cwt, with a greater price spread for lambs weighing under 18kg.

Slaughter

For the week ending 31 January:

• Cattle Slaughter: Eased by 19,136 to 121,772 head, but continues to track 4% above the same time last year. Slaughter decreased in all states, with drops in NSW (4,504 head), Queensland (9,691 head), and Victoria (3,097 head).
• Sheep and Lamb Slaughter: Combined slaughter eased by 116,396 to 597,541 head. Lamb slaughter decreased to 75,538 head, and sheep slaughter decreased to 40,858 head. In NSW, sheep slaughter eased by 16,358 head, Victoria by 14,006 head, and WA by 10,751 head. Lamb slaughter followed a similar trend, with NSW easing by 16,005 to 108,813 head and Victoria easing by 42,311 to 212,761 head.

Attribute content to: Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst

MLA

UK Livestock Market Update: Prices and Throughput

Key Points

• Cattle Prices: GB deadweight cattle prices increased again for the week ending 01 February, with the overall all-prime price up by 16p/kg.
• Sheep Prices: Sheep prices eased, with the GB OSL SQQ at 710p/kg, despite lower numbers forward.
• Demand and Supply: Robust demand for cattle continues to drive farmgate prices higher against a backdrop of tighter supply.

Cattle

GB deadweight cattle prices rose again in the week ending 01 February. R4L steers increased by 16p/kg to average 617p/kg across GB, while R4L heifers grew by 17p/kg to 616p/kg. The overall young bull measure also gained, sitting at 580p/kg, a lift of 10p/kg. All categories are now approximately 110p higher than the same point a year ago.

Cow prices also saw sharp increases, with the overall GB price up 15p/kg week on week to 439p/kg, which is 98p/kg above the same week in 2024.

AHDB estimated slaughter indicated that prime cattle numbers were largely steady on the week, with an additional 100 head forward, totalling 34,400 head. Cow numbers eased slightly, down 4% to an estimated 10,500 head.

Robust demand for available cattle continues to drive prices upwards, with fierce competition reported for available supplies. Reports suggest that beef wholesale prices have reflected the strength of the current cattle market, with Valentine’s Day demand driving price rises, particularly for steaking cuts.

Sheep

Deadweight sheep prices fell back in the week ending 01 February, with the GB old season SQQ down 21p/kg week on week to 710p/kg. This was 67p/kg ahead of the same week last year and 204p/kg above 2023.

Estimated slaughter fell back, both on the week and compared to the same week last year, totalling 186,000 head. Poor weather during the week may have restricted numbers forward, according to reports. However, strong trade continues, particularly for export lambs.

Looking ahead to the next couple of months, processors will be looking to secure supplies for key demand periods surrounding religious festivals, Easter, and Ramadan, for both domestic and export markets.

AHDB

UK Beef Market Outlook for 2025

Key Points

• Reduced Domestic Supply: UK beef production is forecast to fall by 5% year-on-year to 885,000 tonnes in 2025 due to a reduced domestic cattle supply.
• Consumption Trends: Domestic beef consumption is expected to grow marginally, driven by retail demand as foodservice remains stable. Everyday cuts like mince are anticipated to perform well as consumers remain price-conscious.
• Import and Export Dynamics: The UK’s requirement for imported beef is projected to increase by 12% in 2025 compared to 2024. Conversely, exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to supply constraints.
• Price Outlook: Domestic farmgate cattle prices are expected to be supported throughout 2025. However, consumer price sensitivity and the mix of cuts purchased will be crucial to overall carcase values.

Overview

2024 was a strong year for the beef market overall. The UK produced 934,000 tonnes of beef and veal, up nearly 4% from 2023. This increase, combined with a 5% uplift in beef imports, contributed to greater supply on the market. Despite this, GB finished cattle prices continued to set records in 2024. Consumer demand was robust, with slight growth in retail and stable volumes through foodservice. Exports also increased, supported by demand from the continent.

Analyst Insight

Hannah Clarke, Lead Analyst (Red Meat), highlights that the forecast supply and demand changes point to a supportive environment for domestic farmgate cattle prices in 2025. However, the price sensitivity of consumers and the mix of cuts purchased will play a crucial role in determining overall carcase values.

AHDB

The Latest Update on Irish Pig Market Prices and Throughput

Prices

Deadweight pig prices in Ireland are on an upward trajectory due to relatively tight supplies for slaughter. Prices have been increasing steadily week on week from a low of 190c/kg in mid-February 2024. For the week ending 12th January 2025, the average price paid for grade E pigs was €2.03/kg excluding VAT. This current price is 4% lower than the corresponding week last year, when the grade E pig price was €194.83.

Throughput

While throughput has improved in the last quarter, demand continues to outpace supplies. Total throughput year-to-date (YTD) is 118,524, which is slightly behind the corresponding period in 2023.

According to the latest Performance and Prospects Report, overall pig supplies, including exports, increased by 2% (+70k head) to 3.65 million pigs during 2024. Irish pigmeat production rose by an estimated 4% in 2024, reaching approximately 310,000 tonnes.

This increase was driven by both higher pig supplies and slightly increased average carcase weights. The rate of recovery gained momentum as the year progressed, following a 10% decline in 2023 due to higher feed costs and depressed market prices.

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Irish Lamb Prices and Throughput – February 2025 Market Update

The latest figures show that Irish lamb prices and throughput continue to move in different directions. Processors in Ireland have raised base quotes to €9.00–€9.40/kg for well-finished lambs, including the Quality Assurance (QA) bonus. Strong demand also prompted plants to lift carcass weight limits to 24 kg, giving producers more flexibility.

This firming trade reflects a consistent pattern across 2024 and into early 2025. Tighter supplies and steady demand in both domestic and export markets continue to support values. Similar conditions appear in other major lamb-producing regions across Europe and the UK. According to Eurostat, the Irish ewe flock contracted by 3.7% in December 2023 compared with 2022, a fall of 107,000 head that is still influencing today’s supply.

Prices

For the week ending 12 January 2025, the reported deadweight price for lambs reached €8.75/kg — a strong 31% increase on the same week in 2024, when prices averaged €6.62/kg.

In Great Britain, average lamb returns stood at €8.29/kg, down only 4c on the week. Northern Ireland prices improved to €7.95/kg, supported by demand from both GB and ROI live exports.

Southern Hemisphere suppliers have also edged higher. Australia rose to €5.99/kg, and New Zealand recorded €4.38/kg, narrowing the gap with EU prices and boosting competitiveness in European markets.

Throughput

Sheep throughput continues to tighten. DAFM-approved Irish plants processed 34,008 head in the second week of January, compared with 57,313 head in the same week last year. Overall, year-to-date slaughter is down 32%, totalling 70,274 head.

This decline stems from smaller lamb crops, difficult lambing conditions, and variable grass growth. These supply pressures highlight why Irish lamb prices and throughput will remain closely watched by wholesalers, caterers, and processors throughout 2025.

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Quotes

Base quotes from major processors have seen a slight improvement this week, ranging from €9.00/kg to €9.40/kg for well-finished lambs, with an additional QA bonus available. With increased demand, many major processors have raised the carcass weight limit to 24kg.

Supply and Demand

The relatively tight supply of lambs, coupled with stable demand from both domestic and export markets, has contributed to the firming of the trade throughout 2024. This trend is also evident in other key lamb-producing regions in Europe and the UK. According to the latest Eurostat figures, there has been a contraction in breeding flock numbers in many regions. In Ireland, the ewe flock decreased by 3.7% in the December 2023 census compared to December 2022, a decline of 107,000 head, which has further tightened supplies.

Prices

The reported deadweight price for the week ending January 12th increased by 31% to €8.75/kg, reflecting the ongoing improvement in quoted prices from major lamb processors. In the same week in 2024, the reported deadweight price was €6.62/kg. The deadweight trade has also improved across UK regions. Last week, reported lamb prices in mainland GB were equivalent to €8.29/kg, a decrease of 4c/kg, while in Northern Ireland, there was a notable improvement to €7.95/kg, a decrease of 17c/kg.

The relatively tight supply of lambs for slaughter in Northern Ireland, combined with competition from the live export trade to both mainland GB and ROI, has contributed to this firming of the trade.

Southern Hemisphere Prices

Prices in the Southern Hemisphere remain well below European levels but have improved significantly over the past few weeks, narrowing the price differential with the EU. With a lead time on product shipments, this recent improvement in deadweight prices is expected to impact their competitiveness in EU markets in the medium to long term. This week, prices saw a slight increase to €5.99/kg in Australia and €4.38/kg in New Zealand.

Throughput

There was a decrease in the total sheep kill in DAFM-approved plants last week to 34,008 head, compared to 57,313 in the same week in 2024. Tighter supplies have been a feature of the 2024 lamb season so far, with a smaller lamb crop, difficult lambing conditions, and changeable grass growing conditions all impacting lamb availability for processing. Total year-to-date slaughter is down 32% compared to 2024, totaling 70,274 head.

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Prices

Deadweight pig prices in Ireland are on an upward trajectory in response to relatively tight supplies for slaughter. Prices have increased steadily week on week from a low of 190c/kg in mid February 2024. The average price paid for grade E pig prices in Ireland for the w/e 24th November was €2.03/kg excluding Vat. The current Irish price is 5c/kg lower than the corresponding week last year.

Throughput

While throughput has improved in the last quarter demand continues to run ahead of supplies. Total throughput YTD is 2,950,613 which is marginally behind the corresponding period in 2023.

The latest available data from the CSO shows that Irish exports of primary pigmeat products were valued at €243 million, 2% higher than the corresponding period in 2023.

A recovery in pig supplies for processing and a slight improvement in carcase weights have contributed to a similar 2% increase in export volumes during H1.

Within the H1 exports, there were notable increases in the value of trade to the UK (+16% to €71 million), and EU markets (+25% to €59 million). Meanwhile, there were declines in the value of Irish pigmeat exports to Asian markets (-15% to €77 million) and Oceania (-37% to €16 million.).

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Quotes

Base quotes from the major processors have improved slightly this week with €8.20/kg – €8.50/kg for well finished lambs (+QA bonus) on offer.  With well fleshed lambs in demand, some major processors have also increased paid carcass weight limits, with all main plants paying for a 23-5kg carcass.

Relatively tight lamb supplies combined with some stability in demand from the domestic and export markets have contributed to this firming of the trade all year. Tighter lamb supplies are also a feature in other key lamb producing regions of Europe and the UK with the latest Eurostat figures indicating a contraction in breeding flock numbers in many regions.

The Irish ewe flock contracted by 3.7 per cent in the December 2023 census versus December 2022 levels. This decline in the ewe flock of 107,000 head is one factor contributing to the tightness in supplies currently.

Prices

Reported deadweight price for week ending the 8th of December increased by 26c/kg to €8.14/kg, reflective of the continuing improvement recorded in quoted prices from the major lamb processors. In the corresponding week in 2023 the reported deadweight price was €6.42/kg. The deadweight trade has also improved across the UK regions.

Reported spring lamb prices in mainland GB were the equivalent of €8.36/kg  last week (+9c/kg) while in Northern Ireland there was a notable improvement in the trade to be €8.02/kg (+16c/kg).

Relatively tight supplies of lamb for slaughter in Northern Ireland combined with competition from the live export trade to both mainland GB and ROI contributed to this firming in the trade.

Southern Hemisphere prices remain well below European prices however they have improved significantly over the last few weeks, narrowing the price differential with the EU. With a lead time on product shipments this recent improvement in deadweight prices should impact their competitiveness on EU markets in the medium to  longer term.

Prices this week took a jump and are at €5.52/kg and €4.47/kg for Australia and New Zealand , Australia’s price taking another jump by 17c/kg while New Zealand sees a slow down reducing of 5c/kg after a period of mostly week on week increases for the past 15 weeks.

Throughput

There was a decrease in the total sheep kill in DAFM approved plants last week to 41,265 head, compared to 59,714 the same week in 2023.

Tighter supplies has been a feature of the 2024 lamb season to date with a smaller lamb crop, a difficult lambing and changeable grass growing conditions all impacting lamb availability for processing. Total TYD slaughter is down 9% on 2023 to total 2,318,846 head.

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