HAMBURG/LLEIDA, June 14 (Reuters) – Europe’s pork industry is bracing for a “nightmare scenario” of lower prices and falling profitability if China restricts imports from the region, according to industry executives and analysts. The concerns arise after Chinese firms requested an anti-dumping probe into pork imports from the European Union, as reported by state-backed Chinese media on Friday. This development escalates tensions following the EU’s imposition of anti-subsidy duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

In 2023, China imported $6 billion worth of pork, including offal, with more than half of these imports coming from the EU, according to Chinese customs data. A halt in these orders would result in a significant loss of business for Europe’s meat industry. Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank, stated, “The full suspension of EU pork exports to China would be a potential nightmare scenario for the pork supply chain, with implications across the EU.”

The potential disruption could lead to lower prices and reduced profit margins for European pork producers, who may struggle to find alternative markets for their products. The ability to export pork parts such as ears, noses, and feet to China has been crucial for generating higher value from the whole carcass. While alternative markets might be found for pork muscle meat cuts, it is doubtful that the same could be achieved for variety meat exports currently shipped to China.

Germany’s pork industry, already affected by an import ban from China since 2020 due to swine fever, could face further challenges. Spain, another major exporter, may also need to seek new markets, potentially leading to downward pressure on EU pork prices.

The situation underscores the interconnectedness of global trade and the potential ripple effects of trade disputes on various industries.