Irish beef outlook 2023
Ireland is the largest supplier of beef to the UK, with Irish product continuing to be a mainstay in the UK market. According to Bord Bia’s 2023 Irish beef sector outlook, c.90% of the value of Irish beef exports go to the EU and UK marketplace.
With the UK making up 43% of the total value of Irish beef exports at €1.1 billion in 2022, any change in production or trade across the Irish sea could impact domestic prices here.
So, what can we expect in 2023?
In 2022, Irish cattle throughputs were up 7% year-on-year at 1.82 million head (Bord Bia) with cattle finished younger in H2 2022, reducing the need for additional feed or fodder.
This is due to high input costs squeezing margins as knock-on effects from the war in Ukraine resulted in high energy and on-farm costs.
Demand for Irish beef supported prices in 2022, averaging £4.06/kg (up 15.9% year-on-year) due to tight supplies in the UK and EU, with herd contractions causing EU production declines of 0.6% in the first half of the year (H1). As a result, the gap between Irish and GB beef prices (pound sterling) closed, with Irish prices exceeding GB prices for the first time in 5 years, from the end of May-June.
According to Bord Bia, Irish cattle throughputs are forecast to fall by 3-4% (50,000-60,000 head) in 2023, mainly in H1 due to the smaller herd size. Although, we could see a recovery later in the year. With tight supplies expected globally in 2023, predominantly due to reduced production in the northern hemisphere, prices are set to remain historically high.
Teagasc forecast that average finished cattle prices in Ireland will rise 4% year-on-year in 2023.
This is despite downside pressure from inflation reducing disposable incomes and having negative implications for demand.
Tom Price / AHDB
Read full article Share on twitter