Growing Volatility in the Australian Cow Market

Australian Cow Market Sees High Volatility Amid Record Prices and Shifting Fundamentals

The Australian cow market is currently experiencing heightened volatility, driven by a combination of record prices, shifting supply and demand fundamentals, and external pressures such as adverse weather and evolving geopolitical developments.

According to Emily Tan, Market Information Analyst at Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), producers are actively capitalising on historically high prices, although recent fluctuations reflect the delicate balance of market forces.


Market Fundamentals and Supply Trends

The recent volatility is closely tied to market fundamentals—particularly supply and demand dynamics. As supply increases, particularly of leaner cows, prices have begun to ease. However, many producers are still entering the market to take advantage of cow prices at their highest in over three years.


Cow Price Trends – March to April

  • Processor Cow Indicator:

    • Final week of March: 304¢/kg liveweight (lwt)

    • Last week: Rose by 33¢ to 319¢/kg lwt

    • Current price: 10% above the previous week, and 28% above the 10-year average

  • Wagga Saleyards:

    • 7 April: 2,150 cows yarded

    • 14 April: 1,995 cows

    • Heavy cow prices: 322–360¢/kg lwt

  • Dalby Saleyards (9 April):

    • 991 cows yarded

    • Prices eased by 27¢ to 285¢/kg lwt

    • Previous week: 513 cows yarded, prices lifted by 31¢ to 312¢/kg lwt

Increased yardings—particularly of leaner cows—have driven price softening, while heavy cows continue to attract premiums.


Regional Price Variations

The regional cow market continues to reflect varied conditions:

  • Wagga: Heavy cows achieving up to 360¢/kg lwt

  • Dalby: Prices dipping to 285¢/kg lwt amid increased supply and easing quality

These regional differences underscore the impact of localised supply conditions, buyer demand, and market readiness.


External Influences: Weather & Geopolitics

External events are compounding market uncertainty:

  • US tariff policies are shifting global meat trade dynamics

  • Flooding in Western Queensland has disrupted supply chains and impacted livestock conditions

These factors are prompting greater caution among producers as they attempt to navigate an unpredictable marketplace.


Outlook: Uncertainty Amid Strong Demand

The Australian cow market remains robust but volatile, with producers attempting to seize favourable pricing despite uncertainty. Ongoing shifts in weather, global trade policy, and supply quality are likely to continue driving market fluctuations in the months ahead.


Key Takeaways:

  • Cow prices are at a three-year high, but market volatility is increasing.

  • Leaner cow supply is softening prices, while heavy cows remain in demand.

  • Regional markets show significant pricing variations.

  • External factors like weather and trade policy are influencing market behaviour.

Source: Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst

 

Government Acts on Foot and Mouth Disease Threat

Government Implements New Measures to Prevent Spread of Foot and Mouth Disease

In response to a rising number of foot and mouth disease (FMD) cases across Europe, the Government has announced new measures to protect British livestock and ensure the security of farmers and the UK’s food supply. Starting Saturday 12th April, travellers will be prohibited from bringing cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into Great Britain for personal use.

This ban includes items such as sandwiches, cheese, cured meats, raw meats, or milk, regardless of whether they are packed, packaged, or purchased at duty-free shops. While FMD poses no risk to humans and there are currently no cases in the UK, it is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cattle, sheep, pigs, and other cloven-hoofed animals like wild boar, deer, llamas, and alpacas. The outbreak in Europe presents a significant threat to farm businesses and livestock in the UK.

FMD can lead to substantial economic losses due to production shortfalls in affected animals and loss of access to foreign markets for animals, meat, and dairy products. Earlier this year, the Government had already banned personal imports of cattle, sheep, other ruminants, pig meat, and dairy products from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria following confirmed FMD outbreaks in those countries.

The new EU-wide restrictions aim to better safeguard the UK against the evolving disease risk and provide clear guidelines for travellers to help them comply with the regulations. These restrictions apply only to travellers arriving in Great Britain and do not affect personal imports from Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man.

The Government’s proactive measures underscore the importance of protecting the health of British livestock and maintaining the security of the nation’s food supply amidst the ongoing FMD threat in Europe.

AIMS Comment

The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has long advocated for a ban on personal imports of meat and dairy products. They welcome the Government’s announcement, stating:

“AIMS have urged the Government to impose a ban on personal imports for meat and dairy products for a considerable time. We welcome this announcement which will help to defend our borders from imported diseases such as FMD and ASF that posed such a threat to British farming, food processing and the wider economy.

The Government now need to ensure that travellers, especially those holidaying in Europe this summer, are made aware at the point of embarkation, that they are not permitted to bring in meat and dairy products to Great Britain.”

China Expands Access for Spanish Pork Amid Tariff War

China Signs Agricultural Trade Deal with Spain Amid US-China Tariff Tensions

Beijing/Madrid, April 11 (Reuters) – China has signed two new agricultural trade protocols with Spain, covering Spanish pork and cherries, in a move to strengthen ties with the European Union amidst intensifying US-China trade tensions. The agreement was announced by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez during his visit to Beijing on Friday.

Pork Deal Opens Doors for Offal Exports to China

The new protocols include pork products that were previously restricted, such as pork stomachs—a delicacy in China but not widely consumed in Europe. The agreement marks a significant step forward for Spain’s meat industry, opening fresh opportunities in the world’s largest pork import market.

Daniel de Miguel, International Manager at Interporc, Spain’s pork producers association, noted the importance of the deal:

“This new inclusion is vital, as pork offal—such as stomachs, ears, and feet—is in high demand in China but often has limited value in European markets.”

The National Association of Spanish Meat Industries (ANICE) also welcomed the deal, citing the increasing global trade volatility:

“In a context of enormous international commercial turbulence, we welcome this gesture from China, which opens new doors for our pork exports,” the organisation said in a statement.

Strategic Timing Amid US-China Tariff Escalation

This agreement comes shortly after US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to retaliate with 125% duties on US goods. Amid this escalating tariff war, China’s trade pivot towards the European Union is seen as a strategic counterbalance.

Potential Impact on Anti-Dumping Probe

Analysts believe the pork deal could signal a softening in China’s stance on its ongoing anti-dumping investigation into EU pork—a probe launched in response to EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

“This is great news for Spain’s pig farmers,” said Even Rogers Pay, agriculture analyst at Trivium China. “It suggests Chinese regulators may delay or ease the pork investigation, similar to what we’ve recently seen with EU brandy.”

The investigation, if fully enforced, could heavily impact top EU pork exporters like Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands, whose exports to China are dominated by offal cuts not commonly consumed in Europe.

Strengthening EU-China Agricultural Trade

The agreement underscores China’s broader strategy of building economic bridges with the EU while reducing reliance on the US during ongoing trade disputes. It also offers a boost to Spain’s agri-food sector, particularly amid volatile international market conditions.


Key Takeaways:

  • China and Spain sign trade deal covering pork (including stomachs) and cherries.

  • The deal may ease pressure from China’s anti-dumping probe on EU pork.

  • Agreement comes amid escalating US-China tariffs and trade realignments.

  • Positive outlook for Spanish pork exports and EU-China agri-trade relations.

Original source: Reuters

 

Irish Sheep Trade & Prices Update

Quotes

Base quotes from the major processors have been falling for a number of weeks, however the week ending 22nd of March saw quotes increase, with €8.70/kg – €8.80/kg for well finished lambs (+QA bonus) on offer. Sellers trading at the higher end of the market are securing €9.10/kg to €9.20/kg also having more success in negotiating higher carcass weight allowances up to 23.5kg.

Relatively tight lamb supplies combined with some stability in demand from the domestic and export markets have contributed to this firming of the trade all of 2024.

Tighter lamb supplies are also a feature in other key lamb producing regions of Europe and the UK with the latest Eurostat figures indicating a contraction in breeding flock numbers in many regions.

The Irish ewe flock contracted by 3.7 per cent in the December 2023 census versus December 2022 levels. This decline in the ewe flock of 107,000 head is one factor contributing to the tightness in supplies.

Prices

Reported deadweight price for week ending the 22nd  of March decreased by €0.10/kg to €8.47/kg, reflective of the continuing second week consecutive price drops recorded in average prices from the major lamb processors. In the corresponding week in 2024 the reported deadweight price was €8.50/kg.

The deadweight trade has slightly improved across the UK regions for week ending 8th of March. Reported lamb prices in mainland GB were the equivalent of €8.79/kg  last week (+4c/kg) in Northern Ireland there was a larger decrease in the trade to be €8.06/kg (-30c/kg). Week ending 15th and 22nd of March NI and GB prices are not yet published.

Southern Hemisphere prices remain well below European prices however they have improved significantly over the last few weeks, narrowing the price differential with the EU. With a lead time on product shipments this recent improvement in deadweight prices should impact their competitiveness on EU markets in the medium to  longer term.

Prices this week took a slight fall and are at €4.48/kg and €4.48/kg for Australia and New Zealand.

Throughput

There was a decrease in the total sheep kill in DAFM approved plants last week to 37,117 head, compared to 53,922 the same week in 2024.

Tighter supplies has been a feature of the 2025 lamb season to date with a smaller lamb crop and a difficult lambing impacting lamb availability for processing. Total TYD slaughter is down 22% on 2024 to total 479,860 head.

Bord Bia

Irish Cattle & Beef Market Update

Throughput

There were 31,590 cattle processed in DAFM approved plants during the week ending March 22nd 2025, taking throughput for the year to date to 430,397 head. This is a 1,513 head or 3% increase on the corresponding period in 2024 when a total of 430,700 cattle were processed.

There have been 323,157 prime cattle processed in the first 12 weeks of 2025, a 2.6% increase from the same period last year (+16,714 head). Within this however there has been a change in the slaughter mix with a notable decline in the young bull kill early in 2025, which has this week evened out to similar level as this week in 2024.

Steer and Heifer throughput has dropped slightly in comparison to 2024. Cow throughput has remained strong with 99,507 cows processed so far this year, up by 13% from 2024 levels.

Prices

Quotes from major processors have continued to trend upward and this has been reflected in a balance between supply and demand currently in favour of producers. Base quotes this week are in the region of €7.30-€7.40/kg for steers while starting quotes for heifers are around the same.

The trade for the smaller numbers of young bulls on offer remains steady with €7.30-€7.40/kg also available for U grading animals under 24 months of age, with flat prices as high as €7.50/kg available for R grading bulls.

Well fleshed O grading cows are being quoted at €6.80/kg with €7.00/kg available for good quality R grading cows. A significant proportion of the cow kill have achieved a conformation score of P in recent months and the prices available for these animals vary significantly based on grade, weight and quality.

For the week ending March 22nd 2025, the average price paid by Irish beef processors for R3 steers increased by 32c/kg to €7.12/kg.

This was 195c/kg ahead of the corresponding week in 2024. The reported R3 heifer during the week ending March 22nd 2025 increased by 16c/kg to €7.15/kg, placing it 193c/kg ahead of the corresponding week in 2024.

Note that reported prices exclude VAT but include all bonus payments such as in-spec bonus, breed-based producer groups etc.

EU and UK prices:

European young bull prices have held strong for all of 2025 so far. The average reported price for R3 grading young bulls was €6.31/kg (excluding VAT) for the week ending March 22nd 2025. This is 125c/kg ahead of the same week last year when the average R3 price was €5.06/kg.

Tighter cattle supplies and firm demand have meant deadweight beef prices in the UK have remained strong, this week the average R3 steer price increasing to be €8.01/kg for the week ending March 22nd 2025.

Bord Bia

JBS to Invest in Two New Meat Plants in Vietnam

Brazilian meatpacking giant JBS has announced a $100 million investment to build two meat processing factories in Vietnam, marking a strategic move to expand its presence in Southeast Asia and strengthen its global market reach.

Key Project Details:

  • First Factory: Located in the Nam Dinh Vu Industrial Park in Haiphong (northern Vietnam), this facility will include a logistics centre, along with storage, pre-processing, cutting, and packaging capabilities. It will primarily process beef, pork, and poultry using raw materials imported from Brazil, aimed at supplying both the domestic market and regional customers.
  • Second Factory: Planned for southern Vietnam, construction is expected to begin two years after the first facility becomes operational. It will offer similar infrastructure and capabilities.

The project was formalised through a memorandum of understanding with the Vietnamese government during Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s recent state visit to Vietnam.

Renato Costa, president of JBS subsidiary Friboi, stated that the factories are not just about increasing capacity but also about creating value for the local economy. The investment aims to generate skilled jobs, enhance food security across Southeast Asia, and support the transfer of knowledge and technology through training programmes for Vietnamese workers.

The initiative is expected to create around 500 jobs and will contribute to developing Vietnam’s food production and export capabilities.

Original story: Vietnam Investment Review 

Meat Charge Hike Squeezes Abattoirs

Abattoirs Hit by FSA Meat Charge Rise

The Food Standards Agency (FSA) has announced a significant increase in meat inspection charges, set to take effect from 1 April 2025. This uplift is expected to add further financial strain on small and medium-sized abattoirs across the UK.

The hourly rates for official veterinarians (OVs) and meat hygiene inspectors (MHIs) visiting abattoirs will rise by 17.7% and 11.3%, respectively. The new rates will be £65.90 per hour for OVs and £43.20 per hour for MHIs. These charges apply to various approved meat premises, including slaughterhouses, cutting plants, and on-farm slaughtering facilities.

The FSA’s decision has sparked concern among industry leaders, who warn that the increased costs could lead to more abattoir closures, particularly affecting rural areas. The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has called for more support for local abattoirs, highlighting the risk of increased journey times for animals and higher operational costs.

The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has also voiced strong opposition, describing the fee hikes as an “unjustified gouge” on the sector. AIMS has challenged the legitimacy of the charges, arguing that traditional meat inspection delivers no discernible food safety benefits.

With the number of abattoirs in the UK already in decline, the new charges could exacerbate the situation, reducing competition and consumer choice. Industry experts are urging the FSA to reconsider the fee increases and explore structural reforms to support the struggling meat industry.

Original story: NFU Online 

Ban on Austrian Livestock Imports

UK Bans Livestock Imports from Austria to Prevent Spread of Foot and Mouth Disease

The UK Government has announced a temporary ban on the commercial import of cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, deer, and wild boar from Austria to prevent the spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD). This precaution follows the confirmation of a new FMD case in Hungary, near the Austrian border.

Import Ban Expanded Amid FMD Outbreak in Europe

The import restrictions apply to live animals and untreated animal products such as fresh meat, dairy, and other raw goods. The ban now includes Austria, in addition to existing bans on imports from Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany.

The UK Chief Veterinary Officer has emphasised that while FMD poses no risk to human health or food safety, it is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, including cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, deer, wild boar, llamas, and alpacas.

Personal Imports Also Restricted

In addition to commercial imports, travellers are no longer permitted to bring the following items into Great Britain from Austria:

  • Meat and meat products

  • Milk and dairy products

  • Animal by-products from pigs and ruminants

  • Certain composite products

  • Hay and straw

These restrictions match existing measures already in place for Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia.

Government Actions to Protect UK Livestock

Authorities are working closely with border control agencies and traders to manage the risk from any goods currently en route to Great Britain. Pre-notification and enhanced border checks are in place to prevent the entry of restricted items.

Livestock Keepers Urged to Stay Vigilant

The UK Chief Veterinary Officer is calling on livestock farmers to remain alert for clinical signs of foot and mouth disease, particularly after recent outbreaks in Europe.

Common signs of FMD in livestock include:

  • Fever

  • Lameness

  • Excessive salivation

  • Blisters on the feet and mouth

Although no cases have been reported in the UK, the economic impact of an outbreak would be severe—leading to production losses, trade restrictions, and potential loss of access to export markets.

What Is Foot and Mouth Disease?

Foot and mouth disease is a highly contagious viral disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals. It spreads rapidly through animal contact, contaminated equipment, and even via clothing or vehicles.

Strict biosecurity practices are essential to prevent an outbreak and protect the UK’s livestock industry.


Key Takeaways:

  • UK bans imports of live animals and certain products from Austria due to FMD risk

  • Import restrictions also apply to Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany

  • Travellers face limits on personal imports of meat, dairy, and hay

  • Livestock owners are urged to maintain strict biosecurity

Source: Gov.UK

Sheep in Yorkshire Tests Positive for Avian Influenza

Avian Influenza Detected in Sheep in Yorkshire: A First for the UK

The UK’s Chief Veterinary Officer has confirmed a case of avian influenza (H5N1) in a single sheep in Yorkshire. This case was identified following routine surveillance of livestock co-located on a premises where avian influenza had previously been confirmed in captive birds. The infected sheep was humanely culled to enable extensive testing, and further testing of the remaining flock revealed no additional cases of the virus.

This marks the first time that avian influenza has been reported in a sheep, although similar cases have been detected in livestock in other countries. Despite this, there is no evidence to suggest an increased risk to the UK’s livestock population. The UK Chief Veterinary Officer is urging all livestock keepers to remain vigilant and maintain good biosecurity to prevent the spread of the disease.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has stated that avian influenza is primarily a disease of birds and poses a very low risk to public health. The Food Standards Agency has also reassured the public that properly cooked poultry and poultry products, including eggs, remain safe to eat.

Original story: Gov.uk

Australian Cattle and Sheep Market Update

Weekly Cattle and Sheep Market Wrap: Prices Take a Downturn

Cattle Market Insights

The cattle market experienced a downturn this week. With a continued dry outlook, producers tried offloading more cattle, leading to yardings lifting by 21,192 to 81,876 head. Despite price lifts in Queensland and Victoria, buyers were more selective, looking for better lines of yearlings. The Restocker Heifer Indicator lifted by 10¢ to 286¢/kg liveweight (lwt).

Sheep Market Insights

The sheep market ended the week in the red for all indicators. Combined sheep and lamb yardings lifted by 19,421 to 316,823 head, with market reports indicating an increased number of buyers. However, prices were erratic. The Light Lamb Indicator eased by 30¢ to 697¢/kg carcase weight (cwt), with prices dropping in most states. Victorian saleyards reported light lambs sold into the Middle East, winter feeders, and store orders held their value while other animals struggled to maintain last week’s prices. There was a noticeable drop in the number of heavy lambs on offer due to the lack of quality lambs presented.

Processors appeared to prefer grain-finished lambs over grassfed lambs this week. The Trade Lamb Indicator eased by 24¢ to 771¢/kg cwt. Trade lambs at Wagga Wagga witnessed prices dropping by $8–11 to $138–200 per head compared to last week.

Slaughter Figures

For the week ending 14 March, cattle slaughter eased by 2,819 to 130,198 head. Numbers remained low due to processor closures. Queensland slaughter lifted by 3,389 head, though still lower than two weeks ago. Slaughter eased in NSW (2,012 head), Tasmania (1,015 head), and Victoria (3,913 head).

Public holidays in several states led to combined sheep and lamb slaughter easing by 48,392 to 651,235 head. National sheep slaughter eased by 10,931 to 194,797 head, while lamb slaughter eased by 37,461 to 456,438 head. Lamb slaughter eased in Victoria (38,904 head), Tasmania (2,107 head), South Australia (7,146 head), and Queensland (221 head).

Content attributed to Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst.

 

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